Why are some military regimes short-lived, while others remain in power for decades? While the conventional wisdom is that military rules survive shorter than the other types of autocracies, there is significant durational variation among the military dictatorships. Employing the critical juncture framework, this paper argues that the mode of decolonization influences the duration of military rule: military regimes tend to survive longer when armed rebels led the country’s independence than when civilian leaders peacefully negotiated the independence. We empirically examine our claim by combining cross-national analyses with an originally created data set and the case study of military regimes in Myanmar and Pakistan.
Yuko Kasuya is Professor of Political Science at the Department of Political Science, the Faculty of Law, Keio University, Japan. Her research interests include regime transition, political institutions, Southeast Asia (especially the Philippines), and East Asia (especially Japan). She is the author of Comparative Politics (Minerva Publishing, in Japanese, 2014) and Presidential Bandwagon: Parties and Party Systems in the Philippines (Anvil, 2008). Her articles can be found in journals such as Electoral Studies, The Pacific Affairs, and Party Politic, among others. She holds a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of California, San Diego, an M.A. in Development Studies from the Institute of Social Studies (Netherlands), and a B.A. in Law from Keio University. She is vice president of the International Political Science Association from 2018 to 2021, and V-Dem East Asia Regional Center’s founding director since 2019. Her current projects concern democratic backsliding in Asia.
Masaaki Higashijima is Associate Professor of Political Science in the Graduate School of Information Sciences at Tohoku University, Japan. His research interests include comparative political economy, autocratic politics, ethnic politics, and Central Asia. His articles appeared in British Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, and World Development. His first book, the Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box, is forthcoming at the University of Michigan Press (Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies Series). His research was funded by numerous grants such as those of the US National Science Foundation, Fulbright Commission, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and Suntory Foundation. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Michigan State University.
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